At 2-2, you would not consider teams in trouble. Realizing that there has only been one conference game, the conference season is young. While this is still very early in the season, statistics are starting to formulate a less than rosy picture for the Panthers. Statistically, Ferrum is ranked 1st in the conference in rushing offense. To me this is not a surprise as their corps of running back is top notch, and this is always a strength of the Panthers. It is the other major categories that cause me concern. After 4 games, Ferrum is ranked 8th in the conference in pass defense. Against the rush, Ferrum is ranked 5th, but is showing improvement as they were ranked 8th in week 2. Their total defense ranking is 7th, This is an area that Ferrum is usually somewhat stronger in,
With Methodist coming to Ferrum this weekend, one thing is for sure. This is not the same Methodist team from last year, and so far has played far better than I predicted. They took Maryville to four overtimes before falling 36-30. While they only have one win, they should not be taken lightly, and will come in fired up to play Saturday.
Statistically however, the match up favors Ferrum. The #1 rushing offense, against the #8 rushing defense. The #8 pass efficiency defense, against Ferrum's Pass efficiency rating of #2.
Defensively, both teams are struggling, but the edge has to go to the Panthers. While Ferrum is giving up 28.25 ppg, the Monarchs are surrenduring 32.75 ppg. Couple that with Ferrum's averaging 27.5 ppg, while Methodist is just averaging 20.25 ppg. and we should see another one in the W column for Ferrum. Home field advantage will also favor Ferrum.
Keys to a Ferrum Victory-
Play to your strength...and their weakness. Run Run Run. (Turn Vann Loose. Get him 12 carries at least.)
Create Turnovers, and capitalize on them. Methodist appears to have a tendancy to turn the ball over.
While their offense seems to rely on the run, they will throw. They have a proven passing game averaging 171 yards per game. They will try to exploit the Panthers weakness.
Special teams will need to step it up and be ready for anything. They have an excellent return man. Make every scoring opportunity count.
Make a big play...or two. HAVE FUN!!
While Ferrum may be in a slight hole in the conference standings, the season is young, and anything can happen. Let's come out of this one with a win, and see where you stand.
My Prediction-
Ferrum 37
Methodist 28
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
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