Sunday, October 18, 2009

Ferrum still in the conference chase...mathematically

With four regular season games left, NCW sits atop the USA South with a 3-0 conference record. I wanted to try to see what possible scenario exsists for Ferrum to still win the conference championship.

The best that the Panthers can hope for is to finish 5-2 in the conference. To do that they have to win out. Defeat Shenandoah, Christopher Newport, Averett, and Maryville. 3 of those four teams are currently tied with one loss in the conference. See the standings below:

2009 USA South Football Standings

N.C. Wesleyan 3-0
Averett 2-1
Chris. Newport 2-1
Maryville (Tenn.) 2-1
Ferrum 1-2
Greensboro 1-2
Methodist 1-2
Shenandoah 0-3

Besides Ferrum defeating 3 of the top four teams in the conference, North Carolina Wesleyan has to lose three of their remaining games. If that happens, I think Ferrum can still win the conference with a 5-2 record.

Is it possible? By the numbers yes....but to win the conference would take a miracle of Biblical proportions. Besides the obvious task of winning out, the chances of NC Wesleyan going 1-3 over the next four games is highly unlikely. Next week they host Maryville. Maryville is a good team, and could pull an upset, but to do this on the road is not going to be easy.
Next the Bishops travel to Methodist. While I doubt Methodist will provide the opposition necessary, they are an improving team, and seem to be a tough opponent for anyone lately. With the home field advantage, Methodist may have a better than average shot at an upset, but its a long shot.
Next the Bishops host Shenandoah. The Hornets have been a disappointment this year, and currently occupy the basement of the USA South. This will prove to be a tough task, but they are not that bad of a team. To go to Rocky Mount and win will take a near perfectly executed game plan along with divine intervention.
If going into week 11 the Panthers are still mathematically alive, it will be difficult to believe. If however they are, Ferrum travels to Maryville, while NC Wesleyan goes to Averett. For Ferrum to beat the Scots, and the Cougars to beat the Bishops is not impossible.

This is not a done deal. Can Ferrum win out? Can NC Wesleyan be beaten three of the next four weeks? This is anybody;s guess. One thing I can say with certainty is that Ferrum has to beat Shenandoah. If they lose this one, they are mathematically eliminated.

1 comment:

  1. Better hope for a few flat tires on several of the buses hauling the NCWU team over the next couple of weeks.