Saturday, October 16, 2010

Still in the race, but we need a little help.

With a win today, Ferrum will be 2-1 in the conference, and still in the hunt for the championship. They will need some help from other teams however to get in the playoffs. Averett is a team that is strong, but they are not the largest stumbling block for the Panthers. Ferrum's biggest obstacle right now is North Carolina Wesleyan. Yeah I know we already played them, and they are the only conference team that has beaten us. That is why they are they are the biggest obstacle. For Ferrum to have a chance at the playoffs, it is likely that the Panthers have to win their remaining games. But even if they win all of them, North Carolina Wesleyan has to lose two.
If Ferrum wins out, and Averett only loses to Ferrum in the process, then Ferrum would be ahead of the Cougars in the standings because of the head to head win. Given the same scenario, Averett would beat NCW giving them one loss. This would not be enough for the Panthers as The USA South tie breaker format would likely put them out of the running. The tie breaker for the USA South is determined as follows:

   a.  Head-to-head competition.
                              b.   Performance against higher-rated teams in Conference.
                              c.   Common opponent records.
                              d.   In the event of a three-way tie, the NCAA regional ranking following the final games will be used to break the tie between the three teams.  This will determine the Conference’s automatic bid to the NCAA tournament.
                              e.   Coin toss.

So it will take two losses by North Carolina Wesleyan. Who is left that cam beat them? I would say that the most likely scenario for this is Averett in their last game of the season, and  today's game against Christopher Newport. Remember, Ferrum has to win out for this to matter, and that means beating Christopher Newport, and Averett. It is a tough climb, but every climb begins with it's first step, and today's step is against Greensboro. So while you are pulling for the Panthers to reach 2-1 in the conference, keep your fingers crossed (just this once) for Christopher Newport. 

Go Panthers!


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