Rankings- It's Not Rocket Science, but it's pretty close to it

There are several ranking systems out there today that project where teams will finish. The first ranking that I look for each year is the coaches poll in the USA South. I always find it interesting to see who they think will win it all, and then see how it really comes out. By the way, how did they do last season?


2010 coaches poll:


1. North Carolina Wesleyan 45 points- 5 first place votes

2. Averett 41 points- 2 first place votes

3. Christopher Newport 40 points 1 first place vote

4. Ferrum 28 points

T5. Greensboro 21 points
Maryville 21 points

7. Shenandoah 20 points

8. Methodist 8 points




Here is how they ended up-

SCHOOL	CONFERENCE	OVERALL
N.C. Wesleyan	6-1	7-3
Chris. Newport (Conf. Champion)	6-1	6-5
Ferrum	4-3	4-6
Shenandoah	4-3	4-6
Averett	3-4	5-5
Maryville (Tenn.)	3-4	4-6
Greensboro	1-6	2-8
Methodist	1-6	2-8

So last season, the coaches were a little off. Christopher Newport came up with the wins when they needed them, and won the conference. Wesleyan came in second as they lost to CNU. Averett tailed off in the later stages of the season, and Ferrum posted wins late after digging themselves a big hole.


As I have already reported on this years coaches poll, I will now focus on three other ranking systems that rate all of the the D3 teams.


Massey Ratings Systems- First, I will not pretend to understand all of the methodology used by any of these prognosticators. Massey is a system that has been around for a while, and can rate just about every sports team imaginable. Even High School teams.


This year for D3 football, it ranks 240 teams....(They include the Apprentice School which is not included in all rankings) 


Ferrum is ranked 164th in the nation of 240 teams. The entire USA South team rankings from Massey are below:


North Carolina Wesleyan- 79th
Christopher Newport- 113th
Ferrum- 164th
Averett- 167th
Maryville- 180th
Shenandoah- 187th
Methodist-210th
Greensboro- 224th


To understand how Massey arrives at its rankings, you can read about their processes and methodology at


http://masseyratings.com/theory/massey.htm


The next set of ratings comes from Atomic Football-


This system of predicting where someone will finish is complex, and is difficult to interpret and understand. The following is a link to their system from their website...good luck figuring their methods of rating teams:


http://www.knology.net/jashburn/football/af-algorithm.html




Within this page on their website is a section called "The Paper" Their is a clickable link that gives you 33 pages of the most complex mumbo jumbo you have ever seen. (click it...I dare you) I am guessing they are fairly accurate, but how they come up with their predictions is amazing, or boring, depending on how you look at it.


Atomic Football has Ferrum projected to be 5-5. The full projections of the USA South teams , as I understand them, are below:


Averett 6-4
CNU 6-4
Ferrum 5-5
Greensboro 2-8
Maryville 4-6
Methodist 2-8
NCW 7-3
Shenandoah 3-7




The last rankings system is put out by D3football.com. This should come out on or around the 23rd of August. I am expecting that this rating will give the edge to CNU or NCW. They will likely have Ferrum 4th, but possibly third. We will have to wait and see. Along with the team rankings, D3football.com will also rank all of the d3 conferences. Look for the USA South to be in the bottom third, but may be slightly higher than last year.


As for their methods for determining their rankings, I am guessing that they are looking more at what the teams lost from the previous years rosters, and gut feeling rather than scientific formulas.


It should be an interesting year...As for my predictions, I will stand by them, but they are fairly different from those already out. I think NCW will be a strong team, but will not be there in the end. CNU will have a strong team as always, but beatable. Shenandoah is a team that can and may surprise people. As for Ferrum, I have a good feeling, but they must win the big ones, and avoid being upset. I do not predict Ferrum to win it all, but I give them a far better chance that those other guys. 


Go Panthers!